Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | NICH -11.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.5 (+29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -8.0 (+5.0) | 123.6 (+23.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -7.1 (+4.1) | 126.3 (+20.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -8.2 (+5.2) | 125.5 (+21.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -7.6 (+4.6) | 126.8 (+20.2) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-21 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 11-3 |
| Home | 4-7 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#346) | -0.8 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.33 (#356) | 0.34 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.06 (#347) | 0.31 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.305 (#345) | 0.570 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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