Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -0.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -0.9 (+10.1) | 132.1 (-5.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -0.5 (+11.5) | 131.8 (-4.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -1.0 (+12.0) | 130.7 (-3.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -2.4 (+13.4) | 131.9 (-4.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 27-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-4 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#69) | 6.4 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#252) | 1.96 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#242) | 3.03 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#279) | 0.609 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 44.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.9% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 28.7% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.5% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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