Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +12 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -2.6 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+40.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -0.7 (+11.3) | 138.0 (+46.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -2.2 (+14.2) | 140.3 (+43.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -2.7 (+14.7) | 140.9 (+43.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -2.9 (+14.9) | 138.9 (+45.1) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#182) | 1.9 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#136) | 2.82 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#154) | 3.44 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#268) | 0.664 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.6% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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