Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | PUR -150 VILL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -0.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -0.4 (+6.4) | 148.4 (+5.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -0.1 (+5.9) | 153.2 (+0.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.3 (+6.3) | 153.4 (+0.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -0.4 (+5.6) | 152.1 (+1.9) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 16-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#7) | 15.8 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#13) | 1.27 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.90 (#7) | 1.91 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#52) | 0.638 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 45.4% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 2.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.2% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 10.5% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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