Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | HPU +450 GAST -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -0.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -4.4 (-3.6) | 142.6 (-2.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -0.7 (-8.7) | 147.7 (-7.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -0.2 (-8.2) | 149.2 (-9.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -0.4 (-8.4) | 146.0 (-6.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#237) | 4.3 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#180) | 0.21 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#168) | 0.16 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#107) | 0.496 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 44.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 79.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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