Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -0.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -1.1 (-7.9) | 137.9 (+5.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -0.0 (-9.0) | 142.1 (+0.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -0.1 (-9.1) | 143.2 (-0.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -0.4 (-9.4) | 141.8 (+1.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#134) | 2.8 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#106) | 0.47 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#90) | 0.56 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#186) | 0.635 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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