Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -12.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -10.5 (+3.5) | 148.6 (-8.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -9.3 (+4.7) | 146.1 (-6.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -11.3 (+2.7) | 147.8 (-7.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -13.8 (+0.2) | 147.8 (-7.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | -3.3 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#266) | -0.45 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#268) | -1.05 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#259) | 0.375 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 14.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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