Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | OU -5.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -3.1 (-6.1) | 144.4 (-1.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -3.5 (-6.5) | 146.2 (-3.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OU -2.3 (-5.3) | 148.1 (-5.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -2.7 (-5.7) | 148.7 (-5.7) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#20) | 8.1 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#14) | 1.29 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.43 (#15) | 2.30 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#25) | 0.652 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.2% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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