Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -1000 JKST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -3.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -6.1 (+7.9) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -4.3 (+9.7) | 144.7 (+1.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -4.8 (+9.2) | 145.8 (+0.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -3.9 (+10.1) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#266) | -0.5 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#264) | -0.71 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#251) | -0.75 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.346 (#321) | 0.426 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 22.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 8.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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