Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
| Money | HC +400 BRY -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +16 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | BRY -2.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -2.8 (-13.2) | 146.1 (-6.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -0.3 (-15.7) | 148.5 (-8.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -0.4 (-15.6) | 147.5 (-7.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -1.2 (-14.8) | 148.3 (-8.3) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 5-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#338) | -7.9 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#276) | -2.14 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#275) | -3.47 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#299) | 0.415 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.28 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 27.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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