That's where you'll find me, along with the lovers muggers and thieves - but they're cool people. "Dirty Water" - The Standells
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
51–31 on winners spread MAE 9.1 82 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
East Carolina @ Tulane +10.2 154.6 82% 78–81 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver -0.3 147.1 47% 83–68 ✓
Murray State @ Drake +8.7 142.2 80% 62–74 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis +1.1 139.8 56% 61–65 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo +6.1 152.0 77% 63–68 ✓
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +2.1 140.4 68% 65–81 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +11.6 147.5 84% 72–92 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Sam Houston +12.7 136.6 87% 54–72 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State +1.8 141.1 57% 65–58 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Valley +7.1 145.2 78% 69–113 ✓
Bowling Green @ Ohio +10.5 156.8 85% 58–92 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford +2.5 142.4 59% 69–78 ✓
Portland @ BYU +5.9 154.2 73% 71–82 ✓
California Baptist @ Southern Utah +6.0 146.3 75% 71–81 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech +1.1 150.0 54% 71–61 ✗
Omaha @ Kansas City +1.0 135.1 47% 73–61 ✗
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +0.9 124.3 56% 51–54 ✓
UT Arlington @ Seattle U +7.1 135.2 81% 56–80 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech -1.7 152.4 42% 63–78 ✗
New Mexico @ Colorado State -1.8 155.1 47% 84–92 ✗
Pacific @ San Francisco +3.9 153.9 68% 63–80 ✓
Alabama @ Texas A&M -2.1 151.1 44% 61–67 ✗
Iowa State @ Baylor +6.4 136.6 72% 73–58 ✗
Seton Hall @ Providence +6.5 143.0 77% 82–58 ✗
Mercer @ Furman +7.4 142.4 80% 58–73 ✓
Elon @ William & Mary +1.7 134.5 56% 51–73 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +5.9 137.4 72% 62–66 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton +5.1 152.7 71% 69–77 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan State +6.1 146.2 80% 78–84 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss +2.4 137.3 56% 78–61 ✗
George Mason @ Richmond +0.1 137.7 47% 62–60 ✗
Bryant @ New Hampshire -2.2 141.6 41% 60–67 ✗
UAB @ Charlotte -1.1 142.1 40% 93–91 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina +0.9 144.1 61% 55–61 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +11.5 160.3 88% 94–96 ✓
Kansas State @ West Virginia +2.8 148.8 70% 81–89 ✓
Tennessee @ Auburn -2.0 135.2 46% 70–79 ✗
Louisville @ Virginia +17.5 131.0 90% 60–75 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas +5.6 144.9 74% 88–79 ✗
Columbia @ Cornell +15.3 158.3 89% 73–87 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth -2.9 137.8 36% 82–87 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP -1.1 137.6 46% 65–77 ✗
Siena @ Saint Peter's -3.9 131.0 41% 72–73 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Manhattan +0.9 137.4 55% 74–69 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ La Salle +4.5 143.3 69% 76–73 ✗
Duquesne @ Fordham +0.5 146.9 58% 60–87 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina -0.4 137.5 52% 57–69 ✗
Monmouth @ Drexel +10.3 134.2 83% 45–64 ✓
Campbell @ Radford +1.7 134.5 56% 72–71 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Boston College +2.6 139.9 64% 73–65 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts +2.7 141.8 69% 60–71 ✓
TCU @ Oklahoma -0.3 144.7 52% 60–74 ✗
Troy @ James Madison +2.7 147.7 63% 72–75 ✓
Western Kentucky @ North Texas +10.7 127.6 85% 33–67 ✓
Florida International @ Rice +4.0 158.0 69% 90–83 ✗
Indiana State @ Bradley +2.8 140.8 65% 70–71 ✓
Niagara @ Canisius +2.8 134.9 61% 68–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri +8.2 148.4 81% 77–82 ✓
Kansas @ Texas +3.2 149.1 67% 59–75 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +11.9 145.0 87% 54–85 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M +4.0 139.0 66% 74–78 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon +6.5 141.3 79% 68–73 ✓
Florida State @ Virginia Tech +12.6 150.4 88% 60–82 ✓
San José State @ Air Force +0.1 135.0 48% 63–61 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +2.6 156.0 69% 92–93 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +2.4 133.2 62% 70–91 ✓
VCU @ George Washington -6.0 148.5 22% 74–68 ✓
Wake Forest @ Syracuse +0.1 157.8 49% 63–72 ✓
UNLV @ Nevada +7.8 140.7 81% 69–67 ✗
Utah @ Colorado +3.4 134.7 65% 60–69 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Miami +5.9 156.6 78% 76–78 ✓
Texas State @ Marshall +8.0 146.6 78% 71–68 ✗
Chattanooga @ Samford +3.9 152.9 68% 85–82 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +3.6 132.5 70% 60–71 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +3.8 129.9 67% 52–65 ✓
Stony Brook @ North Carolina A&T +2.2 137.5 63% 76–61 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech +4.2 142.9 69% 71–68 ✗
LSU @ Florida +10.5 144.2 82% 67–79 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +4.7 138.2 69% 68–65 ✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1.5 143.7 39% 63–58 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling +12.3 130.5 87% 49–69 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina +1.7 141.3 66% 62–57 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.