Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -4.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -2.5 (+6.5) | 139.9 (+7.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.1 (+6.9) | 138.0 (+9.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -2.6 (+6.4) | 142.0 (+5.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -2.5 (+6.5) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | WIN 80 – 78 RAD |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WIN 76 – 75 RAD |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WIN 78 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | RAD 87 – 67 WIN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WIN 85 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#171) | -4.3 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#198) | -0.69 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#207) | -0.93 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#157) | 0.477 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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