Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UML -500 ME +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +31 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UML -11.9 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -12.1 (+18.9) | 143.9 (-4.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -11.7 (+19.3) | 140.8 (-1.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -12.6 (+18.4) | 144.0 (-5.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -11.9 (+19.1) | 145.0 (-6.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UML 67 – 56 ME |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UML 91 – 77 ME |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ME 72 – 64 UML |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ME 71 – 70 UML |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ME 86 – 85 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 8-4 |
| Away | 9-8 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#129) | -5.5 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#135) | -0.93 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#136) | -1.23 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#119) | 0.466 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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