Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +2 | 190 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -12.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (+27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -13.3 (-11.3) | 160.7 (+29.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -11.7 (-9.7) | 160.5 (+29.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -11.9 (-9.9) | 160.0 (+30.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -11.5 (-9.5) | 160.3 (+29.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#14) | 5.4 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#10) | 1.01 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#8) | 1.41 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#24) | 0.507 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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