Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | TNTC +105 UTM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -1.9 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -1.5 (+16.5) | 154.8 (-13.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -1.2 (+16.2) | 153.6 (-12.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -1.5 (+16.5) | 153.1 (-12.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -1.7 (+16.7) | 152.4 (-11.4) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTM 64 – 49 TNTC |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UTM 86 – 62 TNTC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UTM 70 – 67 TNTC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | TNTC 71 – 66 UTM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TNTC 89 – 85 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#291) | -5.1 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#278) | -0.74 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#285) | -1.01 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#251) | 0.480 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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