Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB +150 ALCN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +5 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -0.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -1.7 (-3.3) | 143.0 (-22.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -1.9 (-3.1) | 140.7 (-19.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -1.8 (-3.2) | 142.7 (-21.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -1.5 (-3.5) | 143.7 (-22.7) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-2 |
| Away | 2-16 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L9 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#328) | -5.8 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#352) | -0.07 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#344) | -0.15 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#338) | 0.514 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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