UNC Asheville
Bulldogs
66
–
62
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires Big South
South Carolina Upstate
Spartans
Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -365 UPST +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -6.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -5.6 (-1.6) | 137.3 (-9.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -5.6 (-1.6) | 138.8 (-10.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -6.0 (-2.0) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -5.9 (-1.9) | 137.4 (-9.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCA 76 – 67 UPST |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCA 83 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCA 92 – 85 UPST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 92 UPST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCA 77 – 64 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-0 | 11-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#148) | -5.4 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#101) | -0.45 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#112) | -0.75 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#73) | 0.486 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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