Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | AF -125 SJSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -0.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -0.5 (-2.5) | 132.7 (-8.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -1.2 (-0.8) | 131.8 (-7.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -0.7 (-2.7) | 133.4 (-9.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -0.1 (-2.1) | 135.0 (-11.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#143) | 4.3 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#173) | 1.23 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#168) | 1.48 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#252) | 0.547 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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