All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–7 on winners spread MAE 7.6 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Butler @ Xavier +11.9 145.1 86% 66–78 ✓
Binghamton @ UMBC +5.0 146.5 73% 67–65 ✗
NJIT @ Vermont +14.5 144.1 88% 57–84 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +13.3 150.9 87% 80–96 ✓
Chicago State @ Fresno State +9.4 130.9 82% 72–108 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -2.6 137.2 35% 68–60 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech -8.5 145.8 20% 76–72 ✓
Iona @ Rider -6.0 145.8 27% 80–78 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist -2.9 143.3 41% 88–76 ✓
UConn @ Villanova -4.2 140.3 34% 71–59 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +3.2 143.2 65% 76–87 ✓
Yale @ Brown -5.9 143.1 28% 84–75 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech -1.7 154.6 44% 89–82 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.2 157.2 71% 50–70 ✓
California @ Oregon State +5.5 124.5 74% 66–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Clemson +12.2 145.1 87% 64–87 ✓
Davidson @ Rhode Island -1.0 140.9 44% 68–54 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana +5.8 143.3 73% 49–67 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +6.4 142.7 73% 67–66 ✗
Northeastern @ Delaware +4.3 138.4 72% 74–77 ✓
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt +0.9 134.7 55% 72–77 ✓
Creighton @ DePaul -11.1 151.4 16% 84–70 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +4.3 144.3 74% 73–86 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +12.6 138.0 87% 44–52 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara +2.7 134.4 66% 61–81 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State +8.4 143.4 80% 55–63 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA +6.0 149.4 79% 73–82 ✓
Wyoming @ San Diego State +14.3 137.9 88% 50–67 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland State -0.7 156.5 46% 84–80 ✓
BYU @ Loyola Marymount -2.0 148.9 39% 73–63 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -5.8 132.9 29% 73–72 ✓
Arizona State @ USC +6.7 144.9 80% 65–68 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +3.5 152.8 68% 93–87 ✗
Houston @ Memphis -3.5 142.8 35% 67–65 ✓
Maryland @ Penn State +1.6 139.6 63% 64–65 ✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra +11.0 136.8 86% 46–94 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +7.0 140.2 79% 71–76 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Asheville +4.2 139.7 68% 73–77 ✓
Army @ Colgate +10.7 155.5 86% 74–91 ✓
Drake @ Bradley -0.1 132.0 46% 77–51 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +5.4 147.2 75% 49–69 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +5.0 154.6 74% 82–83 ✓
East Carolina @ UCF +11.8 136.6 86% 58–84 ✓
SMU @ Cincinnati +12.5 152.0 87% 74–97 ✓
Nebraska @ Iowa +9.9 156.7 78% 81–77 ✗
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington +0.9 129.3 57% 68–73 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -2.3 142.0 44% 66–67 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +8.1 147.2 79% 80–83 ✓
American University @ Lafayette +1.9 126.3 64% 76–84 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana +5.6 147.6 74% 73–75 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M +2.6 142.8 63% 79–78 ✗
South Alabama @ James Madison +1.7 143.4 57% 75–66 ✗
Stony Brook @ Charleston +16.7 144.7 89% 52–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.