They headed down to old El Paso; thats's where they ran into a great big hassle. "Take the Money and Run" - The Steve Miller Band
Ohio Valley Conference · Ford Center (Neutral) · March 5, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TNTC -1.5 Away covered
O/U 145.0 Over
Money TNTC -125 / SEMO +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total TNTC win
Actual SEMO +7 171 Lost
Massey SEMO -1.8 (-5.2) — —
Massey Totals — 152.5 (+18.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 43% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 42% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SEMO -1.3 (-5.7) 155.2 (+15.8) 43% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SEMO -1.3 (-5.7) 154.3 (+16.7) 44% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SEMO -1.2 (-5.8) 153.3 (+17.7) 45% ✓
Baseline ML SEMO -1.7 (-5.3) 154.6 (+16.4) 44% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 SEMO 89 – 73 TNTC
Dec 19, 2025 TNTC 85 – 74 SEMO
Feb 15, 2025 SEMO 83 – 69 TNTC
Jan 17, 2025 SEMO 77 – 70 TNTC
Feb 9, 2024 SEMO 88 – 69 TNTC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TNTC SEMO
Overall 16-17 19-17
Conference 11-7 10-8
Home 11-5 9-4
Away 4-11 5-11
Neutral 1-1 5-2
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.1 77.0
Avg Pts Against 75.1 77.6
Massey -6.6 (#283) -4.7 (#251)
Bradley-Terry -1.01 (#268) -0.71 (#240)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.37 (#276) -1.05 (#256)
RPI 0.473 (#237) 0.496 (#185)
Shooting & Four Factors TNTC SEMO
FG% 43.5% 43.6%
3PT% 37.4% 33.1%
REB / G 33.2 33.8
OREB / G 8.4 9.0
AST / TO 1.08 1.03
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.5% 50.2%
TOV% 18.1% 17.3%
ORB% 23.9% 24.9%
FT Rate 21.0% 26.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.8% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 19.5%
DRB% 69.7% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 18.3% 30.4%

Game Analysis

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