Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -8.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -9.8 (+5.8) | 144.4 (+3.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -6.8 (+2.8) | 142.1 (+5.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -8.2 (+4.2) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -8.5 (+4.5) | 145.8 (+2.2) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2023 | FAU 90 – 85 LT |
| Feb 4, 2022 | FAU 83 – 73 LT |
| Mar 12, 2021 | LT 75 – 69 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 18-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-11 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#155) | 12.7 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#184) | 2.61 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#186) | 2.75 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#193) | 0.608 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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