Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -13.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -12.3 (-0.3) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -12.2 (-0.2) | 144.6 (-0.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -11.7 (+0.3) | 144.4 (-0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -11.9 (+0.1) | 145.1 (-1.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#17) | 3.8 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#19) | 0.75 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#11) | 0.88 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#20) | 0.506 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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