Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +163 JKST -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | JKST -2.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -3.1 (-4.9) | 135.1 (-7.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -3.9 (-4.1) | 135.7 (-7.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -2.6 (-5.4) | 137.1 (-9.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -2.6 (-5.4) | 137.2 (-9.2) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | JKST 85 – 77 MVSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | JKST 97 – 81 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | JKST 66 – 62 MVSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | JKST 92 – 44 MVSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JKST 68 – 67 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-6 | 7-2 |
| Away | 1-19 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -15.1 (#359) | -8.6 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#358) | -1.22 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#355) | -1.73 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#352) | 0.454 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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