Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -800 CHST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +36 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -11.1 (+24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (+54.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -8.5 (+27.5) | 130.8 (+49.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -12.7 (+23.3) | 131.3 (+48.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -9.1 (+26.9) | 130.7 (+49.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -9.4 (+26.6) | 130.9 (+49.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 0-0 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#150) | -6.6 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#181) | -1.47 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#163) | -1.85 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#205) | 0.446 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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