Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +12 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -6.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.1 (-7.9) | 138.6 (-8.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.2 (-8.8) | 136.6 (-6.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.9 (-8.1) | 139.4 (-9.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.2 (-7.8) | 140.3 (-10.3) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#75) | 18.1 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#81) | 2.48 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#74) | 3.43 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#112) | 0.589 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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