Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +20 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -4.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -3.1 (+16.9) | 134.9 (+7.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -2.2 (+17.8) | 131.9 (+10.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -2.7 (+17.3) | 133.1 (+8.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -2.7 (+17.3) | 134.4 (+7.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HAW 78 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCSB 77 – 62 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCSB 76 – 72 HAW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UCSB 64 – 61 HAW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCSB 77 – 71 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 10-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 62.0 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#119) | 2.9 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#94) | 0.50 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#105) | 0.91 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#124) | 0.514 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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