Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | CP +275 UCR -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -5.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -5.3 (+4.3) | 132.6 (+12.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -7.2 (+6.2) | 130.0 (+15.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -6.5 (+5.5) | 131.3 (+13.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.8 (+4.8) | 132.9 (+12.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | CP 94 – 87 UCR |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCR 88 – 84 CP |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CP 96 – 83 UCR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CP 112 – 100 UCR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UCR 80 – 62 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-25 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 1-18 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-11 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.4 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#304) | 1.4 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#344) | 0.61 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#331) | 0.38 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#355) | 0.525 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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