Lafayette
Leopards
84
–
76
2OT
FINAL
Conference
PenFed Credit Union Patriot League
American University
Eagles
Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -135 AMER +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -3.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.1 (+42.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.0 (+6.0) | 127.4 (+32.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -2.2 (+5.8) | 122.0 (+38.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -1.5 (+6.5) | 123.5 (+36.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -1.9 (+6.1) | 126.3 (+33.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-16 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#254) | -5.2 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#310) | -0.80 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#296) | -1.29 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#271) | 0.459 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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