Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +20 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -5.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-44.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -4.9 (+15.1) | 157.0 (-37.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -5.9 (+14.1) | 154.4 (-34.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -4.9 (+15.1) | 157.2 (-37.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -5.2 (+14.8) | 157.2 (-37.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#317) | -10.3 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#301) | -1.90 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#302) | -2.47 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#288) | 0.433 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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