We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Western Athletic Conference · UCCU Center · March 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UVU -8.5 Home covered
O/U 139.5 Over
Money UVU -350 / SFA +350
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVU win
Actual UVU +44 182 Won
Massey UVU -7.0 (+37.0)
Massey Totals 144.5 (+37.5)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 90%
Efficiency Plus ML UVU -5.9 (+38.1) 146.8 (+35.2) 74%
Baseline Tuned ML UVU -7.0 (+37.0) 144.6 (+37.4) 77%
Baseline ML UVU -7.1 (+36.9) 145.2 (+36.8) 78%
Baseline Plus ML UVU -7.0 (+37.0) 144.7 (+37.3) 77%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 24, 2024 UVU 7162 SFA
Feb 2, 2024 SFA 7772 UVU
Feb 4, 2022 SFA 7859 UVU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVU SFA
Overall 28-9 19-13
Conference 15-3 11-7
Home 14-1 12-4
Away 12-5 6-5
Neutral 2-3 1-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 76.2 74.1
Avg Pts Against 69.6 72.7
Massey 6.4 (#86) 2.9 (#126)
Bradley-Terry 1.60 (#55) 0.46 (#130)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.95 (#57) 0.49 (#134)
RPI 0.576 (#49) 0.530 (#120)
Shooting & Four Factors UVU SFA
FG% 44.8% 46.3%
3PT% 31.8% 38.6%
REB / G 39.7 34.0
OREB / G 10.3 10.7
AST / TO 1.06 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.2% 51.9%
TOV% 19.3% 21.6%
ORB% 29.3% 32.3%
FT Rate 26.7% 28.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.0% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 24.1%
DRB% 70.5% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 19.8% 28.7%

Game Analysis

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