Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -170 UVU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +19 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -0.6 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.0 (+19.0) | 137.7 (-0.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -0.2 (+19.2) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -0.2 (+19.2) | 138.4 (-1.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.1 (+18.9) | 138.9 (-1.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2024 | UVU 71 – 62 SFA |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SFA 77 – 72 UVU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UVU 113 – 69 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#138) | 5.0 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#132) | 0.87 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#144) | 1.37 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#120) | 0.542 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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