Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | PV -150 TXSO +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | PV -6.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -4.2 (-0.2) | 140.6 (+11.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -3.4 (+0.6) | 138.3 (+13.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -3.8 (+0.2) | 137.2 (+14.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -4.0 (+0.0) | 139.0 (+13.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PV 70 – 59 TXSO |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PV 85 – 78 TXSO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 68 PV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TXSO 79 – 63 PV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXSO 93 – 78 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#270) | -8.3 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#303) | -1.64 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#289) | -1.97 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#306) | 0.443 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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