Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -165 INST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -2.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -2.5 (-1.5) | 140.0 (+1.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.6 (-1.6) | 139.1 (+1.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.3 (-1.3) | 141.2 (-0.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.8 (-1.8) | 140.8 (+0.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#70) | 6.3 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#69) | 0.43 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#77) | 0.51 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#36) | 0.526 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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