Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | FUR -550 MER +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +15 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -9.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -7.1 (+7.9) | 140.6 (-9.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -8.5 (+6.5) | 140.8 (-9.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -8.0 (+7.0) | 141.6 (-10.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -7.4 (+7.6) | 142.4 (-11.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#90) | -3.0 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#99) | -0.98 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#99) | -0.98 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#84) | 0.462 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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