Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +15 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -0.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.5 (-14.5) | 145.8 (+5.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -0.7 (-14.3) | 145.3 (+5.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -0.3 (-14.7) | 146.7 (+4.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -0.3 (-14.7) | 147.1 (+3.9) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#286) | -6.3 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#261) | -1.05 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#275) | -1.21 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#310) | 0.438 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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