Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LAS -163 LUC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | LAS -5.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -3.5 (-6.5) | 139.9 (+9.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -4.7 (-7.7) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -4.5 (-7.5) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -5.2 (-8.2) | 140.8 (+8.2) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | LUC 71 – 61 LAS |
| Jan 8, 2025 | LUC 79 – 68 LAS |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LUC 64 – 54 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#232) | -5.5 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#211) | -1.05 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#224) | -1.17 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#198) | 0.437 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.