Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -148 LAS +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -2.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -1.3 (+11.3) | 132.7 (-0.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -2.8 (+12.8) | 133.9 (-1.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -3.2 (+13.2) | 135.6 (-3.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -3.5 (+13.5) | 134.4 (-2.4) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2025 | LUC 79 – 68 LAS |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LUC 64 – 54 LAS |
| Mar 4, 2023 | LUC 76 – 73 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#304) | -4.0 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#319) | -0.65 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#326) | -0.78 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#316) | 0.489 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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