Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | LAS +110 LUC -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +11 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | LAS -3.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -2.3 (-13.3) | 146.3 (+0.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -2.1 (-13.1) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -2.3 (-13.3) | 143.7 (+3.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -2.1 (-13.1) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | LUC 71 – 61 LAS |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LUC 64 – 54 LAS |
| Mar 4, 2023 | LUC 76 – 73 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-6 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#165) | -0.2 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#143) | 0.01 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#156) | 0.17 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#134) | 0.485 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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