Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UTEP +100 MTSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +12 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -1.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -1.0 (+13.0) | 136.5 (+5.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -0.8 (+12.8) | 133.8 (+8.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -0.9 (+12.9) | 136.8 (+5.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -1.1 (+13.1) | 137.6 (+4.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTSU 77 – 67 UTEP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UTEP 83 – 80 MTSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 75 UTEP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 68 UTEP |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MTSU 96 – 90 UTEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#200) | 3.3 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#196) | 0.82 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#201) | 0.71 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#211) | 0.559 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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