Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CAN -138 NIA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -3.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -2.4 (+10.6) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -1.3 (+11.7) | 133.5 (+15.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -2.5 (+10.5) | 135.0 (+14.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -2.8 (+10.2) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | NIA 65 – 56 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NIA 59 – 54 CAN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | NIA 71 – 60 CAN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NIA 64 – 63 CAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | CAN 69 – 59 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#257) | -4.6 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#301) | -0.64 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#288) | -0.90 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#268) | 0.472 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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