I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–20 on winners spread MAE 8.8 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wichita State @ Houston +19.2 136.0 90% 66–83 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +13.7 148.9 88% 73–92 ✓
American University @ Navy +7.6 131.0 79% 52–51 ✗
Lafayette @ Lehigh +2.4 132.3 61% 71–64 ✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State +2.8 141.9 62% 50–78 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky +9.3 140.1 82% 74–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Kennesaw State +4.3 150.5 70% 71–80 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Liberty +12.2 140.3 87% 73–79 ✓
UCF @ Temple -2.4 141.9 41% 55–57 ✗
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech +5.1 145.6 75% 76–77 ✓
Manhattan @ Siena +8.6 138.7 81% 67–66 ✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's -2.5 132.3 39% 73–60 ✓
Marist @ Iona +17.9 136.5 89% 74–93 ✓
Michigan @ Illinois +5.2 144.0 71% 87–91 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota -10.9 130.5 17% 74–75 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State -0.3 157.6 44% 91–83 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield -1.5 140.4 42% 82–92 ✗
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State -7.6 150.5 19% 71–64 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State -6.0 138.2 27% 64–58 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +8.1 161.5 82% 66–71 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee +1.0 159.1 61% 70–87 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State +4.7 138.8 71% 70–75 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State +6.8 152.3 76% 77–65 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ North Texas +7.9 129.1 77% 50–64 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Rice -9.0 155.6 19% 103–74 ✓
Charlotte @ UTSA -7.6 136.8 22% 73–78 ✗
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern +4.5 137.5 70% 57–66 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Grambling +9.2 133.6 82% 48–60 ✓
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State -4.9 143.7 26% 70–60 ✓
Arizona State @ UCLA +12.5 135.6 88% 61–79 ✓
Purdue @ Wisconsin -2.6 131.5 35% 63–61 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +2.5 158.9 62% 74–92 ✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +0.7 141.8 54% 67–63 ✗
Memphis @ SMU -6.7 154.8 21% 81–62 ✓
Alabama State @ Southern +9.1 135.5 83% 52–66 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon State -3.4 133.2 35% 83–60 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP +1.1 144.4 58% 73–68 ✗
Norfolk State @ Howard -0.5 150.1 47% 67–87 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis +0.5 143.8 49% 89–86 ✗
UIC @ Missouri State +7.1 134.6 75% 57–74 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State +9.4 143.7 81% 61–77 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge -7.0 130.2 24% 81–55 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside +1.2 146.4 60% 75–65 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin -1.2 153.2 44% 75–81 ✗
Arizona @ USC +0.5 158.8 52% 87–81 ✗
Washington State @ Washington +0.3 135.1 53% 93–84 ✗
California @ Oregon +15.9 132.6 89% 51–84 ✓
Pepperdine @ Pacific -0.0 160.7 50% 71–84 ✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +7.9 143.0 79% 66–75 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +9.6 135.7 83% 66–72 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois +5.5 151.9 74% 66–85 ✓
Monmouth @ Hampton +1.7 143.4 60% 100–64 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate -1.7 133.5 43% 76–77 ✗
Indiana State @ Belmont -1.9 153.9 41% 94–91 ✓
The Citadel @ Mercer +4.4 134.2 69% 41–66 ✓
Campbell @ Longwood +3.1 135.4 61% 81–68 ✗
Akron @ Kent State +6.6 142.2 76% 84–89 ✓
Toledo @ Ball State -3.4 164.0 32% 87–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.