Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -250 OAK +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -9.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -9.1 (-2.1) | 140.4 (+14.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -8.2 (-1.2) | 141.3 (+13.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -9.5 (-2.5) | 138.2 (+16.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -9.3 (-2.3) | 140.1 (+14.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#180) | -6.5 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#168) | -0.87 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#163) | -1.22 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#123) | 0.473 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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