Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
| Money | BEL +122 INST -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +3 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -3.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+31.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -1.5 (-1.5) | 154.0 (+31.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -0.7 (-2.3) | 154.4 (+30.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -2.2 (-0.8) | 153.8 (+31.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -1.9 (-1.1) | 153.9 (+31.1) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 INST |
| Dec 30, 2025 | INST 81 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BEL 77 – 75 INST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BEL 84 – 79 INST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | INST 78 – 72 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#122) | 6.3 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#105) | 0.33 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#124) | 0.43 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#64) | 0.523 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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