Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | HOW +125 NORF -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +20 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -0.7 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -0.9 (+20.9) | 146.5 (+7.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -0.2 (+19.8) | 144.4 (+9.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.4 (+20.4) | 148.5 (+5.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -0.5 (+20.5) | 150.1 (+3.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#249) | -0.4 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#185) | 0.27 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#217) | 0.24 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#176) | 0.534 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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