Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +120 UCSB -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +3 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -1.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+33.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.6 (-3.6) | 142.0 (+33.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -0.8 (-3.8) | 138.5 (+36.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -1.0 (-4.0) | 142.5 (+32.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.5 (-3.5) | 143.8 (+31.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#141) | 3.4 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#172) | 0.81 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | 0.83 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#150) | 0.527 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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