Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | WIS +138 PUR -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -4.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -3.2 (+1.2) | 129.3 (-5.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.2 (+1.2) | 127.6 (-3.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -3.2 (+1.2) | 129.3 (-5.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -2.6 (+0.6) | 131.5 (-7.5) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIS 97 – 93 PUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PUR 89 – 73 WIS |
| Feb 15, 2025 | WIS 94 – 84 PUR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | WIS 76 – 75 PUR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PUR 78 – 70 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#75) | 16.2 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#50) | 3.05 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#50) | 3.81 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#90) | 0.623 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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