South Carolina Upstate
Spartans
77
–
76
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires Big South
Gardner-Webb
Runnin' Bulldogs
Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -4.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -2.0 (+3.0) | 133.5 (+19.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -2.9 (+3.9) | 130.8 (+22.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -2.2 (+3.2) | 132.8 (+20.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -1.7 (+2.7) | 133.5 (+19.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#269) | -1.2 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#230) | -0.60 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#237) | -0.72 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#220) | 0.484 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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