Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +220 ALCN -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -5.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -5.9 (-4.1) | 143.7 (-13.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -6.4 (-3.6) | 140.7 (-10.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -5.4 (-4.6) | 142.7 (-12.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -4.9 (-5.1) | 143.7 (-13.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 4-6 | 7-2 |
| Away | 1-19 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -14.9 (#359) | -5.9 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#358) | -0.09 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#355) | -0.17 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#350) | 0.510 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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