Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +25 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | MER -5.8 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -5.1 (+19.9) | 134.2 (-27.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -4.7 (+20.3) | 133.3 (-26.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -4.6 (+20.4) | 134.0 (-27.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -4.4 (+20.6) | 134.2 (-27.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#228) | -9.4 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#269) | -1.69 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#255) | -1.92 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#267) | 0.419 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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