Navy
Midshipmen
51
–
52
FINAL
Conference
PenFed Credit Union Patriot League
American University
Eagles
Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -250 AMER +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +1 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -8.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -8.5 (-9.5) | 128.3 (-25.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -8.7 (-9.7) | 126.3 (-23.3) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -8.6 (-9.6) | 129.4 (-26.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -7.6 (-8.6) | 131.0 (-28.0) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-7 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#173) | -5.6 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#210) | -0.91 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#211) | -1.36 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#169) | 0.454 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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